AAAR 31st Annual Conference
October 8-12, 2012
Hyatt Regency Minneapolis
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
Abstract View
Enhanced Air Pollution Epidemiology Using a 3D Source Oriented Air Quality Model in California
JIANLIN HU, Christina Zapata, Bart Ostro, Michael Kleeman, UC Davis
Abstract Number: 614 Working Group: Aerosol Exposure
Abstract Airborne particulate matter (PM) is known to cause a range of adverse health effects but it has proven difficult to isolate a PM chemical component, size fraction, or source that is primarily responsible for the observed mortality. A major problem preventing further progress is lack of high temporal and spatial resolution data in central monitor measurements which are typically employed in epidemiology studies as estimates of exposure. The current generation of source-oriented air quality models can provide much of the information missing from the central site monitoring database. In the present study, the UCD/CIT_Primary source-oriented air quality model has been developed and applied to estimate population weighted primary particulate matter concentrations from ~900 sources in California for a 7-year period (2000-2006) with 4km spatial resolution and 1 day time resolution. Model results have been comprehensively evaluated against monitoring data and receptor model results to verify accuracy and precision for known sites. Excellent agreement was found between the predicted and measured PM2.5 elemental carbon (EC) concentrations; general agreement was also found between model predictions and ambient measurements for 9 trace elements (K, Zn, Mn, Fe, Ti, As, Si, Cr, and Al) in the PM2.5 size fraction. Predicted PM0.1 mass and EC concentrations agreed well with the observed concentrations. Source contributions to PM2.5 and PM0.1 estimated by the UCD/CIT_Primary model generally agreed with the receptor-based model results. The model predictions for 7-years of PM2.5 and PM0.1 concentrations provide a unique dataset for epidemiological analyses. In the present study, source contributions to primary PM mass, EC, trace elements in multiple size fractions (PM0.1, PM2.5, PM10, PM10-2.5) are correlated against life expectancy data in all 28 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) in California. Relationships between life expectancy and various dimensions of the airborne particle complex will be discussed.