AAAR 34th Annual Conference
October 12 - October 16, 2015
Hyatt Regency
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
Abstract View
Air Quality Co-Benefits of Climate Mitigation Strategies in California
CHRISTINA ZAPATA, Hongliang Zhang, Sonia Yeh, Christopher Yang, Michael Kleeman, University of California, Davis
Abstract Number: 447 Working Group: Urban Aerosols
Abstract California has set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to a level 80% below 1990 levels by the year 2050. Meeting this target will require drastic changes in energy production/consumption for basic needs (transportation, goods movement, industry, residential heating/cooling). In addition to releasing significant GHGs, these same sources emit the majority of the criteria pollutant emissions in California. Major changes to energy production/consumption will therefore lead to significant changes in air pollution exposure for California residents across the entire spectrum of socio-economic classes.
In this study we used results from the CA-TIMES economic optimization model to predict future energy portfolios in California in 2050 under a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an optimized Greenhouse Gas mitigation scenario (GHGAi). Criteria pollutant emissions under each scenario were estimated for the entire state and then spatially allocated with 4km resolution. Meteorological patterns in California during the year 2050 were dynamically downscaled from the CESM climate model RCP8.5 scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A 10 year window was chosen for analysis (2046-2055) to ensure results were statistically significant.
Results from the BAU simulation demonstrate that climate change produces conditions that are more conducive to ozone formation in California but climate change by itself has a very small impact on population exposure to airborne particulate matter. Climate mitigation strategies implemented under the GHGAi scenario have significant co-benefits in the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations with associated public health improvement. The detailed changes in exposure patterns to PM2.5, PM0.1, and various PM chemical components will be presented and the overall economic co-benefits of avoided air pollution will be summarized.