AAAR 35th Annual Conference October 17 - October 21, 2016 Oregon Convention Center Portland, Oregon, USA
Abstract View
Influence of Future Low Carbon Energy Scenarios on California Air Pollution and Health
Christina Zapata, Christopher Yang, Sonia Yeh, MICHAEL KLEEMAN, University of California Davis
Abstract Number: 535 Working Group: Urban Aerosols
Abstract California’s goal to attain unprecedented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets as low as 80% below 1990 levels by the year 2050 will require aggressive adoption of lower carbon energy resources system wide. Dramatically reducing fossil fuel combustion to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will also have ramifications for short-lived conventional criteria pollutants that affect public health such as ozone and PM2.5. This study aims to understand how air pollution and health will transform under a (i) basecase scenario (BAU) and (ii) low carbon energy scenario (GHGAi) for California residents in 2050. The energy-economic optimization model CA-TIMES, was used to produce two economy-wide emission inventories that reflect each scenario’s alternative fuels, electric technologies, fuel switching, and energy activity changes. Simulations of future air quality were conducted with the UCD/CIT photochemical airshed model using 2054 Weather Research Forecasting meteorological projections to produce annual PM2.5 and ozone (O3) concentrations for each energy scenario. Mortality, mortality rate, and cost associated with long-term PM2.5 and O3 exposure were estimated using annual-average concentration fields and Center for Disease Control mortality data. Results indicate PM2.5 and O3 associated deaths would drop by 24-26% to 4,800-7,900 in the 2050 GHGAi scenario, saving $13-24B USD. This equates to a 54-56% PM2.5 and O3 mortality rate reduction relative to 2010. Ozone concentrations were predicted to increase slightly in VOC-limited regions (Los Angeles and San Diego) in the GHGAi scenario, but overall 8-hour O3 exceedances are greatly reduced from 2010 to 2050 and the PM2.5 benefits of the GHGAi scenario overwhelmingly exceed the small O3 penalty.