10th International Aerosol Conference September 2 - September 7, 2018 America's Center Convention Complex St. Louis, Missouri, USA
Abstract View
Potential for Long-Distance Atmospheric Transmission of Influenza Virus
LINSEY MARR, Pei-Shih Chen, Virginia Tech
Abstract Number: 108 Working Group: Infectious Bioaerosol
Abstract Influenza has been shown to be transmitted between nearby farms, but the potential for longer-distance transport, such as between cities or continents, is not known. A study of influenza virus concentrations in outdoor air has suggested that virus particles could be transported from mainland China to Taiwan. The goal of this research is to determine whether observed concentrations of influenza virus in Taiwan can be explained by transport over hundreds of kilometers coinciding with the occurrence of Asian dust storms that carry particles from central Asia toward the southeast. Using an atmospheric transport and dispersion model (HYSPLIT), we have examined back trajectories to identify likely source regions in China. To estimate a source strength, we synthesized information from the literature about the incidence rate of influenza and the amount of virus released by infected individuals. We then constructed simulations of virus transport from mainland China to Taiwan. Using a box model, we also estimated the local contribution to outdoor influenza virus concentrations. We have compared model results to measurements in Taiwan to estimate the contribution of transported vs. locally emitted influenza virus to the observations. This research is the first to assess the potential for atmospheric transport of influenza virus over hundreds of kilometers. Results from this research will help shed light on the epidemiology of influenza and may be used to inform policies aimed at reducing its spread.