10th International Aerosol Conference September 2 - September 7, 2018 America's Center Convention Complex St. Louis, Missouri, USA
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Biofuels: Largest Global Lung-cancer Risk in the 21st Century
SIJIA LOU, ManishKumar Shrivastava, Alla Zelenyuk, Richard Easter, Philip Rasch, Jerome Fast, Staci L. Simonich, Huizhong Shen, Brian Thrall, Shu Tao, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Abstract Number: 1620 Working Group: Aerosols and Health - Connecting the Dots
Abstract Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), emitted from combustion of biofuels and fossil fuels, are toxic compounds and known to cause lung-cancer. In the future, PAH emissions could vary significantly with regulatory policy and newer emissions control technologies. Thus, it is important to understand how exposure to PAHs and its associated lung-cancer risk could change in the future. In this work, we investigate how lung-cancer risk due to PAH exposure changes under various future emissions scenarios projected by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is one of the most carcinogenic PAHs and is used as an indicator of cancer risk from PAH mixtures. All RCPs reduce traditional fossil fuels use and increase renewable and nuclear use in 2050 compared to present-day. Furthermore, most RCPs project increasing cropland use because of the increased food demand with growth in population. Importantly, bio-energy use could increase significantly in the future, which would increase PAH emissions and their associated health risks. Indeed, our simulations indicate that biofuel use will be the largest global contributor to incremental lifetime lung cancer risk (ILCR) in the 21st century. Most of the projected increase in lung-cancer risk due to increased biofuel use is projected to occur in developing countries like those in Africa and South Asia. Developing countries will most likely drive global impacts of PAHs on lung-cancer risks. Advanced residential combustion units that promote complete combustion (such as improved woodstoves) will be essential to reduce PAH emissions and their global health risks.