10th International Aerosol Conference September 2 - September 7, 2018 America's Center Convention Complex St. Louis, Missouri, USA
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Contributions to Disease Burden from Major Sources of Air Pollution in India
Michael Brauer, Aaron Cohen, KATHERINE WALKER, Richard T. Burnett, Joseph Frostad, Qiao Ma, Randall V. Martin, Shuxiao Wang, Chandra Venkataraman, HEI GBD-MAPS Working Group, Health Effects Institute
Abstract Number: 1720 Working Group: Air Quality in Megacities: from Sources to Control
Abstract Ambient air pollution is a leading global risk factor – with 7.5% of total deaths (4.1 million) attributable to exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) according to the most recent Global Burden of Disease estimates (IHME GBD 2016). A majority of this burden is found in low and middle-income countries in Asia, the result of emissions from a variety of sources including the burning of coal for thermal power and industry, household burning of solid fuels, and transportation. To help identify and support priorities for air quality management efforts, the Health Effect Institute launched the Global Burden of Disease-Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD-MAPS) project to estimate both the air pollution levels and the health burden attributable to major air pollution sources. GBD MAPS was first conducted in China and the results have been presented previously; results for the Indian study are presented here.
The objective of this study was to estimate the contributions of major source sectors to ambient PM2.5 concentrations and disease burden under current conditions and multiple future emissions scenarios for urban and rural India.
GBD-MAPS extended the GBD methodology, using emissions inventories and projections together with chemical transport model (GEOS Chem) simulations to i) estimate source contributions to ambient PM2.5 concentrations and to population-weighted exposures ii) assess the contribution of major sources of PM2.5 pollution to current disease burden in India (2015 base year), and iii) predict the impact of different future emissions control scenarios on air quality (2030) and resulting disease burden for both urban and rural areas of India (2050).
In India, residential biomass combustion for cooking and heating was the largest contributor to ambient PM2.5 exposure and burden, responsible for 25% or 268,000 deaths in 2015. This source was followed in magnitude by coal combustion (15.5% or 169,000 deaths), open burning of agricultural residue (6.1% or 66,000 deaths), and a combination of sources including transport, distributed diesel, and brick production. Increases in future PM2.5 attributable deaths were projected for all future emissions scenarios, due to aging and growing populations, but more deaths were avoided with increasingly stringent emissions scenarios.
Heavy industrial and population growth in India suggest “business as usual” scenarios to result in severe burden from air pollution from multiple sources for years to come in rural, as well as urban areas. Aggressive legislation and enforcement of air quality management are required to substantially reduce the future burden of air pollution in India.