AAAR 37th Annual Conference October 14 - October 18, 2019 Oregon Convention Center Portland, Oregon, USA
Abstract View
Effects of GHG Mitigation Strategies in Future Climate over California
ANIKENDER KUMAR, Michael Kleeman, Christina Zapata, University of California, Davis
Abstract Number: 376 Working Group: Aerosols, Clouds and Climate
Abstract California has committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% relative to 1990 levels by the year 2050. This effort will require adoption of low-carbon energy sources across all economic sectors, transforming the airborne particulate matter in California’s atmosphere at the same time that it reduces GHG emissions. In this study, we examine the effects of changing PM composition on radiative forcing under two energy scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) and low-carbon energy scenario (GHG-Step). Calculations are performed using the source-oriented WRF/Chem (SOWC) model, which can track a six dimensional aerosol variable (X, Z, Y, Size bin, Source type, Species) through explicit simulations of atmospheric chemistry and physics. This approach allows particles with the same size from different sources to age into different chemical compositions that depend on the chemical and hygroscopic properties of the primary seed particles.
The BAU and GHG-Step statewide future emission scenarios were constructed using the energy–economic optimization model, CA-TIMES. The SOWC model is applied for the year 2054 with 12 km resolution over California. Meteorological initial and boundary conditions are updated using Community Earth System Model (CESM) model with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) future scenario. Surface temperature, precipitation, and top of the atmosphere (TOA) forcing will be compared in the BAU and GHG-Step scenarios. Implications for future climate in California will be discussed.