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Agent Based Simulations of Human Interactions in Mixed Use Academic Buildings
Sheryl Ehrman, ANUSHA SHETTY, Isaac Espinoza, Jochen Albrecht, Laxmi Ramasubramanian, San José State University
Abstract Number: 185
Working Group: The Role of Aerosol Science in the Understanding of the Spread and Control of COVID-19 and Other Infectious Diseases
Abstract
Transmission of COVID-19 occurs via respiratory droplets and aerosols emitted by infected persons which directly make contact with mucous membranes of the susceptible persons, or via droplet contamination of surfaces, which are touched by susceptible persons, who then touch mucous membranes. This surface route is currently thought to be less important than the direct droplet/aerosol route. Preliminary results from studies of outbreaks suggest indoor transmission is more likely than transmission outdoors [1]. To reduce transmission in occupational settings, an emphasis is placed on social distancing and on reducing the density of people in a room. For educational settings, people may be on campus for less than 8 hours.
Reducing risk in the workplace is challenging because people move throughout the day. Here, we present a simple agent-based simulation approach using the open source software GAMA. Rule sets based upon class schedules, research and administrative activities, and numbers of participants in each category, are used to model human movement. Through a Lagrangian framework, nearest neighbor interactions for an ensemble of agents can be quantified, resulting in an assessment of risk to individuals of contracting SARS-CoV-2, and also a quantification of the scope of contact tracing that would be required. Using an Eulerian framework, density of people can be tracked for specific locations. The results of this analysis can be used to identify hot spots, where schedule adjustments can be used to reduce risk in campus settings. Furthermore, these simulations could be used to generate inputs to SEIR models, enabling more realistic simulation outcomes. The model covers only exposure on campus and does not consider off-campus interactions. It also assumes rational and law-abiding behavior, which related research on our campus has shown to be an oversimplification of actual human behavior.
[1] Leclerc QJ, Fuller NM, Knight LE et al. What settings have been linked to SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters? [version 2; peer review: 1 approved]. Wellcome Open Res 2020, 5:83 (https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15889.2).