AAAR 33rd Annual Conference
October 20 - October 24, 2014
Rosen Shingle Creek
Orlando, Florida, USA
Abstract View
Impact of Urban Growth Form and Fleet Electrification on Emissions, Concentrations, and Exposures for Nitrogen Oxides and Select Toxic Volatile Organic Compounds
HAOFEI YU, Amy L. Stuart, University of South Florida
Abstract Number: 129 Working Group: Linking Aerosols with Public Health in a Changing World
Abstract Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and select volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are important pre-cursor gases for secondary aerosols and also pose a threat to public health themselves. Worldwide, urbanization and increased vehicle traffic have substantially impacted their emissions and ambient concentrations in urban areas. Previous studies suggest that urban planning and "cleaner" vehicles could help decrease emissions and improve air quality. However, differences in impacts on distinct pollutants, and on human exposures, are still poorly characterized. In this study, the impact of alternative urban growth forms and fleet electrification on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures for five pollutants (NOx, 1,3-butadiene, benzene, formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde) were investigated. Three potential future scenarios for the Tampa area in the year 2050 were developed, representing sprawl growth, compact growth, and compact growth with vehicle fleet electrification. Emissions for each scenario were projected using planning data and ambient concentrations in Hillsborough County were estimated with the CALPUFF dispersion model. Chronic and acute population-weighted exposures were subsequently estimated from annual average and 1-hour maximum concentrations, respectively. Results suggest that the compact scenario would have less total emissions in the Tampa Bay region than sprawl for all pollutants except acetaldehyde. Lower NOx concentrations and exposures were also predicted for Hillsborough County, but the opposite was predicted for the VOCs studied. Fleet electrification was predicted to decrease total emissions, concentrations and exposures of the VOCs, but increase all three for NOx, due to the increased burden on power plants. Differences in the type and location of emission sources were responsible for differences in impacts between pollutants. Results suggest that urban planning policies directed at improving public health must carefully considered impacts of distinct pollutants and time scales of exposure. Without this, improvements for some pollutants may be counteracted by decrements for others.