American Association for Aerosol Research - Abstract Submission

AAAR 33rd Annual Conference
October 20 - October 24, 2014
Rosen Shingle Creek
Orlando, Florida, USA

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Effects of Global Climate on Photochemical Pollutant Levels Using Climate Downscaling Meteorology and Chemical Transport Model

HONGLIANG ZHANG, Jianlin Hu, David Rasmussen, Zhan Zhao, Shu-Hua Chen, Michael Kleeman, University of California, Davis

     Abstract Number: 373
     Working Group: Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate

Abstract
Exposure to particulate matter (PM) has adverse effects on human health that may change in response to altered climate and emissions. A recent study that downscaled GCM predictions over multiple years predicted that climate change may increase future extreme PM events in California. In this study, calculations are summarized from a second downscaling exercise using improved models to contribute to the ensemble of emerging results concerning global change and air quality. Predictions from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) are downscaled for both present (year 2001-2010) climate and future (year 2046-2055) climate periods. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale results to 4km spatial resolution and hourly time resolution. The UCD/CIT chemical transport model is used to predict pollutant concentrations and source apportionment in both present and future climate. Present emissions are obtained from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) while future emissions are based on projections from CARB and the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD). PM (primary and secondary) and ozone concentrations are analyzed under three scenarios: (i) present emissions with present meteorology, (ii) present emissions with future meteorology, and (iii) future emissions with future meteorology. Results from 20 years of simulation from the three scenarios are compared to ensure statistical significance in the presence of natural inter-annual variability. The effects of global climate on future average and extreme PM & ozone concentrations and human exposure are discussed.