AAAR 33rd Annual Conference
October 20 - October 24, 2014
Rosen Shingle Creek
Orlando, Florida, USA
Abstract View
Effects of Global Warming Mitigation Strategies in Major Energy Sectors on Primary and Secondary Aerosol
Michael MacKinnon, MARC CARRERAS-SOSPEDRA, Jack Brouwer, Donald Dabdub, University of California, Irvine
Abstract Number: 509 Working Group: Aerosol Sources from Emerging Energy Technologies and Production
Abstract Future efforts to mitigate climate change will include transitions to alternative technologies and fuels seeking reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from United States (US) energy sectors. In addition, displacement of conventional energy strategies will impact emissions of pollutant species directly influencing regional air quality (AQ) due to common generation processes and sources. Currently, sectors of paramount concern include transportation and power generation, which combined total over half of domestic GHG emissions and account for the bulk of emissions driving primary and secondary AQ concerns in many US regions, including ambient concentrations particulate matter.
The present study analyzes the potential reductions in particulate matter caused by an increased penetration of renewable sources of energy, novel technologies and cleaner fuels for transportation in three different regions of interest in the United States: California, Texas, and the Northeastern US (NEUS). The emission reductions are evaluated for the year 2055 with respect to a reference case projected using the Market Allocator (MARKAL) model. The emissions are based on the US Environmental Protection Agency’s National Emissions Inventory, and spatially and temporally resolved using the Sparse Matrix Operational Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. The effects of the emission changes on aerosol formation are evaluated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model.
Significant variation in energy profiles, demands, and constraints among study domains yields significant differences in regional air quality. For example, impacts on PM from power generation in California are modest compared to Texas and the NEUS, largely due to a relative lack of coal use. Current focus on light duty vehicle emission controls amplify impacts on PM from heavy duty vehicles, rail, and off-road sources in all study regions. Additionally, the industrial sector was shown to have comparable impacts to power generation and transportation on PM in all regions.