AAAR 36th Annual Conference October 16 - October 20, 2017 Raleigh Convention Center Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
Abstract View
Development and Assessment of an NEI-based U.S. Emissions Inventory for 1980-2015
MARGUERITE COLASURDO MARKS, Peter Adams, Allen Robinson, Carnegie Mellon University
Abstract Number: 797 Working Group: Regional and Global Air Quality and Climate Modeling
Abstract Two large sets of U.S. health data exist covering the time period from the early 1980s to near the present day, but the lack of corresponding air quality measurements has thus far limited their use in research into the health effects of PM. As part of the Center for Air, Climate, and Energy Solutions, chemical transport modeling will be used to simulate measurements to be used in epidemiological analyses of this data.
In order to produce the necessary gridded estimates of health-relevant air pollutants over the time period 1980-2015, the model requires an inventory of pollutant emissions over the relevant time period. An emissions dataset exists that is based on EPA’s National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and covers part (1990 to 2010) of the desired time period. A procedure for scaling this inventory forward and backward in time has been developed. Because this procedure relies on changes in activity levels and emission factors, those parameters have been identified with as much spatial resolution as possible. Records from 1980 to present of dozens of indicators (e.g., vehicle-miles traveled, acres of agricultural tillage, BTUs of power plant output) have been compiled. Published and measured emission factors have been gathered and compared, and previous EPA modeling work from the 1980s has been used to constrain estimates. The emissions are spatially and temporally allocated using the Sparse Matrix Operational Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model.
A large dataset of air quality measurements (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, NOx, SO2, O3, EC/OC, SO4-, NO3-) has been used to investigate regional trends in pollutant levels and to constrain emissions trends. The few measurements of PM2.5 that were performed prior to 1992 are used for process evaluation, which will be discussed. Trends in emissions are consistent with national-level EPA estimates and generally show slight-to-moderate declines throughout the 1980s.