10th International Aerosol Conference September 2 - September 7, 2018 America's Center Convention Complex St. Louis, Missouri, USA
Abstract View
Long-term Trends in Simulated Ultrafine Particle Concentrations in California
Xin Yu, Anikender Kumar, Melissa Venecek, Abhishek Dhiman, MICHAEL KLEEMAN, University of California, Davis
Abstract Number: 880 Working Group: Aerosol Modeling
Abstract Ambient ultrafine particles have toxic properties due to their high ratio of surface area to volume that promotes biochemical reactions with adsorbed components such as metals. Ultrafine particles can also cross cell membranes once inside the body allowing them to reach a wide range of organs. Recent epidemiological studies have shown that ultrafine particles are associated with premature death in California, but comprehensive exposure data for ultrafine particles are missing which makes it difficult to estimate the total public health impact.
Here we predict exposure fields for ultrafine particles over California for the period 1996 through 2016 with 4km spatial resolution and daily time resolution. Long term trends in ultrafine particle concentrations are compared to field measurements that span this study period. Source apportionment predictions based on the regional model calculations are compared to receptor-oriented source apportionment results using the chemical mass balance (CMB) model and the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. The effects of various control programs for mobile sources and biomass combustion are investigated in both the modeled concentrations and the measured concentrations of ultrafine particles over the decades. Implications for exposure and public health are discussed.