AAAR 37th Annual Conference October 14 - October 18, 2019 Oregon Convention Center Portland, Oregon, USA
Abstract View
Increasing Global Lung-Cancer Risk Due to Biomass Combustion in the 21st Century
Sijia Lou, MANISHKUMAR SHRIVASTAVA, Richard Easter, Jerome Fast, Philip Rasch, Huizhong Shen, Staci L. Simonich, Shu Tao, Alla Zelenyuk, Steven Smith, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Abstract Number: 119 Working Group: Biomass Combustion: Emissions, Chemistry, Air Quality, Climate, and Human Health
Abstract This study will present results of global atmospheric model simulations investigating how biomass combustion will increase lung-cancer risk in the 21st century. Simulations account for measurements that have shown how organic aerosol coatings shield cancer causing polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from atmospheric chemical degradation. Global emissions of toxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are emitted from combustion of biofuels and fossil fuels are expected to change significantly in the future due to shifts in land-use, regulatory policy, and technology changes. Representative concentration pathways are used to explore plausible future emissions and climate-change scenarios, and identify how lung-cancer risk due to PAH exposure could change in the future relative to 2008. Globally, residential biofuel is found to be the largest contributor to PAH emissions in both 2008 and 2050. Benzo(a)pyrene, one of the most carcinogenic PAHs is used as an indicator of PAH-associated lung cancer risk. Model simulations indicate that the global PAH-associated lung-cancer risk is projected to exceed WHO acceptable limit guidelines even in 2050. In developing regions of Africa and South Asia, the increased agricultural waste burning and shifts to traditional biomass-use for energy lead to an increase in lung cancer risk by up to 60% in 2050. However, our study also indicates that the “climate benefit” for BaP can partially offset the emission change-associated increment of lung cancer risk in these developing regions.