AAAR 37th Annual Conference October 14 - October 18, 2019 Oregon Convention Center Portland, Oregon, USA
Abstract View
Estimated Aerosol Radiative and Health Effects of the Residential Coal Ban in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China
KELSEY BILSBACK, Michael Cheeseman, Bonne Ford, Jack Kodros, Xiaoying Li, Emily Ramnarine, Ellison Carter, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Colorado State University
Abstract Number: 604 Working Group: Urban Aerosols
Abstract Particle-phase air pollution is a leading risk factor for premature death globally and impacts climate by scattering or absorbing radiation and changing cloud properties. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China, where there are severe air quality problems, the government is implementing a ban on household use of coal for space heating, coupled with a subsidy for electric- or gas-powered heat pumps. We used the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS model, at 0.25°x0.3125° resolution to evaluate the potential impacts of this policy on air quality, mortality, and climate. We quantified the impacts of two different scenarios: (1) a complete heating transition in the Beijing province only and (2) a complete heating transition in all the BTH provinces. We estimate that 2,200 (interquartile range = 1,500-3,000) premature deaths will be avoided annually in the Beijing-transition case and 16,600 (11,100-23,200) in the BTH-transition case. However, these numbers represent a small fraction of the total annual premature deaths associated with air pollution across China (approximately one million), because the average PM2.5 levels remain high even after residential coal combustion is removed as a source (and PM2.5 levels are unaffected in other regions in China). We also estimated a positive direct radiative effect (DRE), with both an external and internal mixing assumption, and a positive cloud-albedo indirect effect (AIE) in the Beijing-transition case (maximum value in any gridbox for external DRE: +0.18 W/m2; internal DRE: +0.15 W/m2; AIE: +0.07 W/m2) and the BTH-transition case (max external DRE = +1.16 W/m2; internal DRE: +1.00 W/m2; AIE: +0.25 W/m2). However, the warming tendency from both the DRE and AIE were small and only affect winter heating months.