AAAR 37th Annual Conference October 14 - October 18, 2019 Oregon Convention Center Portland, Oregon, USA
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Smoke Forecasting for Wildfires – Interdisciplinary Tools and Operational Applications
SUSAN O'NEILL, Narasimhan Larkin, Yufei Zou, Sean Raffuse, Peter Lahm, Mark Fitch, USDA Forest Service
Abstract Number: 767 Working Group: Biomass Combustion: Emissions, Chemistry, Air Quality, Climate, and Human Health
Abstract The science and skill of wildfire smoke forecasting is built upon an interdisciplinary array of tools, data, models and expertise, ranging from on the ground fuels and fire behavior measurements, to what the satellites see from space. Wildfire smoke, as the most visible part of a wildfire especially to the general public, can have the furthest reaching consequences in terms of health, visibility and socio-economics. Health impacts can include cardiorespiratory symptoms and even mortality and the costs associated with these health impacts can exceed fire-fighting costs. Furthermore, as wildfire seasons get longer and more intense and smoke impacts not only rural communities but large metropolitan areas, the need for information about smoke is mounting. The public wants to know; How do I protect myself? When is the smoke going to clear? Is the air safe enough for my kids to play outside? Do we cancel the Ironman? Answers to these questions rely on science that informs tactical decisions and impacts to public health. This talk will highlight the array of tools and information useful for smoke forecasting such as smoke modeling systems, smoke monitoring networks and remotely-sensed data. The process of merging these disciplines and data, we call putting on our smoke glasses. The emphasis will be on the science under-lying these systems across disciplines and the variability and uncertainty associated with the data and information. We will also talk about the Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program (WFAQRP), which works with the wildfire incident command structure providing smoke monitoring, smoke modeling and consistent messaging about smoke to health and air quality agencies and ultimately the public. As an example of how these many tools and information are used, we will profile the smoke forecasting work of Air Resource Advisors deployed as part of the WFAQRP.