Abstract View
Ozone Source Apportionment in the Year 2050 under Different Energy Scenarios
YUSHENG ZHAO, Michael Kleeman, University of California, Davis
Abstract Number: 340
Working Group: Source Apportionment
Abstract
Previous studies that simulated air quality in California under GHG emissions reductions scenarios noted declines in predicted PM2.5 concentrations but increases in predicted ozone concentrations within major cities. Understanding the source of ozone formation and the optimal control measures will improve public health outcomes in those future scenarios.
Here we simulate the air quality in California in 2050 using different energy portfolios that optimize the economic outcomes under different assumptions about available technology and climate change. The chemical transport model used for each simulation was equipped with an ozone source apportionment technique to reveal NOx and VOC sources that contribute to ozone formation. The model spatial resolution allows separate analysis from different geographical regions to focus on the urban cores where high ozone concentrations are most persistent. Ozone source contributions are quantified from nine source types: onroad gasoline vehicles, onroad diesel vehicles, offroad gasoline vehicles, offroad diesel vehicles, woodsmoke, food cooking, aircraft, natural gas, and others (including biogenic emissions). Simulations are conducted at 24km and 4km resolution. The results identify the dominant source of ozone formation in California in the year 2050 and suggest mitigation plans that can be used to reduce the ozone concentration to the level that meets the air quality standards.