Abstract View
Using Insights from Aerosol Science to Investigate the Dynamic Interplay Between Social Distancing Duration and Intensity in Reducing COVID-19 US Hospitalizations
Pai Liu, PAYTON BEELER, Rajan K. Chakrabarty, Washington University in St. Louis
Abstract Number: 379
Working Group: The Role of Aerosol Science in the Understanding of the Spread and Control of COVID-19 and Other Infectious Diseases
Abstract
We uncover and highlight the importance of social distancing duration and intensity in lowering hospitalization demand-to-supply during the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States (US). We have developed an epidemic progression model which includes susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) dynamics, age-stratified disease transmissibility, and the possible large-scale undocumented transmission of COVID-19 taking place in the US. The model accurately predicts the disease reproduction ratio (R0), which is analogous to aerosol aggregation kernel encountered in aerosol science. Calibrating our model using epidemiological data from the early stage of the pandemic (March 19-28) enabled us to unbiasedly address the question “How long and with what intensity does the US need to implement social distancing intervention during the COVID-19 pandemic?”. For social distancing lasting less than two weeks, we find a near-linear decrease in hospital beds demand with increasing intensity (????) of social distancing. For social distancing lasting longer than two weeks, our findings highlight the diminishing marginal benefit of social distancing, characterized by a linear decrease in medical demands against an exponentially increasing social distancing duration. Long-term implementation of strict social distancing with ???? > 50% could lead to the emergence of a second wave of infections due to the large residual of susceptible population, which highlights the need for contact-tracing and isolation before re-opening of the economy. Finally, we investigate the scenario of intermittent social distancing, and find an optimal social-to-no-distancing duration ratio of 5:1 corresponding to a sustainable reduction in medical demands.