Long-term Air Quality and Health Effects of Dairy Digesters in the Future San Joaquin Valley

Jia Jiang, Ali Akherati, Hamed El-Mashad, Frank Mitloehner, MICHAEL KLEEMAN, University of California, Davis

     Abstract Number: 437
     Working Group: Health-Related Aerosols

Abstract
California, as the nation's leader in milk production, has more than 1.5M cows that emit large quantities of methane (a potent greenhouse gas). Reducing these methane emissions is a priority for dairy farms as California works towards an 80% greenhouse gas reduction by the year 2050. Widespread adoption of anaerobic digesters that capture methane from animal manure provides one option for reduced methane emissions. Carbon dioxide is a less potent greenhouse gas than methane, and so the power produced from burning digester gas has a net climate benefit. Many farms in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) have already adopted some form of this digester technology, but a rigorous evaluation of the air quality impacts remains to be completed.

Here we use a regional chemical transport model to predict pollutant concentrations under multiple future scenarios to better understand and quantify the long-term air quality effects of widespread digester adoption in the SJV. A Business as Usual (BAU) scenario is contrasted with a complete digester adoption scenario and a perfect alternative manure management scenario that eliminates dairy VOC emissions without the use of digesters. All scenarios are evaluated across 32 randomly selected weeks over a 10-year period from the year 2046 to 2055 to establish a long-term average impact in the presence of ENSO variability. All scenarios are evaluated over a range of background atmospheres to explore the effects of changing chemical regimes. The impact of widespread dairy digester adoption O3 and PM2.5 concentrations in the future SJV atmosphere will be reported. The health co-benefits under each scenario will also be calculated using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMap-CE), with the goal of providing additional insight into race/ethnicity disparities in future air pollution exposure in different practices.