Ozone Exposure Disparities in Future Low-Carbon Emissions Scenarios in Southern California
Yusheng Zhao, Yiting Li, Yin Li, Anikender Kumar, MICHAEL KLEEMAN,
University of California, Davis Abstract Number: 573
Working Group: Identifying and Addressing Disparate Health and Social Impacts of Exposure to Aerosols and Other Contaminants across Continents, Communities, and Microenvironments
AbstractAdoption of low-carbon energy will reduce emissions of primary particulate matter (PM) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) but may increase concentrations of ambient ozone (O3) in locations that currently experience NOx-rich chemistry. For example, previous studies have shown that the adoption of low-carbon energy sources in Southern California will increase the predicted O3 concentrations in the year 2050, violating the O3 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Anticipating these problems and designing strategies to minimize these unintended consequences is a necessary step in the planning process for California’s transition to low-carbon fuels.
Here we explore supplemental emissions control strategies in Southern California that reduce O3 concentrations in the presence of low-carbon energy adoption and we evaluate how these strategies affect O3 and NO2 exposures for different race and ethnicity groups. Air quality simulations are conducted using the University of California Davis/California Institute of Technology (UCD/CIT) air quality model coupled with a newly developed O3 source apportionment technique. Ozone source apportionment results are used to guide the design of supplemental emissions control strategies. Five different emission scenarios are evaluated: a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, a greenhouse gas mitigation (GHGAi) scenario, and three supplemental emission reduction scenarios that build on the GHGAi scenario. Each emissions option is evaluated over 32 weeks selected between the years 2046 through 2055 in order to capture ENSO variability in meteorological conditions. Population exposure to total O3 and different sources of O3 is calculated for different races and ethnicity groups. The ability of each emissions strategy to reduce exposure disparities is evaluated, and recommendations for future controls will be discussed.