PM2.5 Source Changes for 2010-2019 in New York and New Jersey by Dispersion Normalized PMF
Yunle Chen, David Q. Rich, PHILIP K. HOPKE,
University of Rochester Abstract Number: 696
Working Group: Source Apportionment
AbstractSince Clean Air Act regulation in the 1970's, a variety of efforts have been made in the United States to control ambient particulate matters and to improve air quality. In the New York State, some major changes made to improve air quality in the past decade include but not limited to the phasing out of all coal-fired power plants, a forced abandonment of No 6 oil for large building heating, a forced switch to ultra-low sulfur marine fuels, the introduction of Tier 3 light-duty vehicles, etc. In this study, we investigated the PM5 source trends at 11 sites in New York and New Jersey from 2010 to 2019 and assessed the effectiveness of policy implementations. Dispersion-normalized positive matrix factorization (DN-PMF) was used for source apportionment to better address the meteorological impacts. The Theil-Sen nonparametric estimator and piecewise linear regression were applied to the resolved source contributions for trend analysis. It is found that, while there is a consistent overall decreasing of PM2.5 at all sites, increases were observed for certain PM sources. The Secondary Sulfate factor, for example, started to increase after 2017 at most sites based on piecewise analysis. Similarly, a recent-year increase was resolved for Diesel factor likely due to increasing vehicle miles traveled for heavy-duty vehicles. Back trajectory analysis traced back OP-Rich source to Southeastern U.S., while Biomass Burning has a mixed source from both local domestic heating and transported from Southeastern U.S.
This work was supported by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) Contract #156226.
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