Modeling the BC and PM2.5 Emissions Changes and Exposure Impacts of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Modernization and Decarbonization
JAMES D.A. BUTLER, Chelsea V. Preble, Fona Ou, Wanshi Hong, Bin Wang, Alan Jenn, Thomas W. Kirchstetter, Ling Jin, University of California, Berkeley
Abstract Number: 588
Working Group: Urban Aerosols
Abstract
People who live near magnet sources (e.g., ports, warehouses) and goods movement corridors are exposed to black carbon (BC) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from diesel medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. In California, like in most of the United States, there are race and class disparities in air pollution exposure from goods movement. To reduce traffic air pollution, state and federal governments have established emission limits for diesel engines. In California, the 2007 Drayage Truck Rule and 2010 Truck and Bus Regulation set requirements that accelerated the use of diesel particle filters and selective catalytic reduction systems in the on-road truck fleet. The next stage of truck fleet regulation begins in 2025 with the Advanced Clean Fleet Rule (ACFR), which mandates a transition to zero-emissions vehicles like battery electric trucks.
We model changes in annual PM2.5 concentrations due to these regulatory programs across California with 1 km grid resolution in densely-populated regions with the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP) source-receptor matrix for 2000–2050. Truck activity on major roadways and electric truck charging events are obtained from the Berkeley Lab Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Load Operations and Deployment Modeling Tool (HEVI–LOAD). We leverage in-use emission factors (EFs) captured during measurement campaigns throughout implementation of fleet regulations (Preble et al., ES&T 2015; 2018; 2019) supplemented with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) EF database (EMFAC). Marginal emissions from electric truck charging demand are simulated in the UC Davis Grid Optimized Operation Dispatch (GOOD) model. Population-weighted average concentrations by race and class are calculated at a census block level. Preliminary results for the ACFR where electric trucks grow from 2% to 70% of the fleet over 2024–2050, along with 100% electric drayage trucks adoption by 2035, demonstrate an annual PM2.5 concentration reduction of ~1 [μg/m3].