AAAR 34th Annual Conference
October 12 - October 16, 2015
Hyatt Regency
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
Abstract View
Estimate Mortality Attributable to PM2.5 Exposure in China with Assimilated PM2.5 Concentrations Based on Ground Monitoring Network and a Regional Air Quality Model
Jun Liu, Yiqun Han, Xiao Tang, Jiang Zhu, TONG ZHU, Peking University
Abstract Number: 384 Working Group: Haze in China: Sources, Formation Mechanisms, and Current Challenges
Abstract Significant progresses have been made to estimate the health burden attributable to exposure to ambient air pollutants, such as retrieval of surface PM2.5 concentrations from satellite observed aerosol optical depth. While in China, surface monitoring network of air pollutants has been expanding drastically. Assimilating the concentrations of ground monitoring network with regional air quality model could provide surface concentrations of PM2.5 with much higher spatial and temporal resolution.
PM2.5 concentrations in 2013 were estimated with the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) using measured concentrations of air pollutants from more than 300 monitoring stations, data assimilation method based on ensemble Kalman filter was used to improve surface PM2.5 simulation. The provincial permanent population and age-specific mortalities were obtained from statistical year book in China at both central and provincial levels. Attributable mortalities including ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer (LC) in adults were estimated using the integrated exposure-response (IER) model.
In 2013 in China, exposure to PM2.5 was associated with 0.69, 0.35, 0.14 and 0.14 million of premature deaths from stroke, IHD, LC and COPD disease. All together, about 1.33 million premature deaths were attributed to PM2.5 exposure. Northern China and Yangtze River Delta have the highest mortality attributable to PM2.5.
Assimilation results of PM2.5 concentration from monitoring network with regional air quality model has been successfully used to estimate mortality attributable to PM2.5, the results are comparable to that of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.