AAAR 34th Annual Conference
October 12 - October 16, 2015
Hyatt Regency
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
Abstract View
In Harm's Way: High-Resolution Modeling of Wildfire Plumes in the Western US for Use in Human Health Studies
WILLIAM LASSMAN, Bonne Ford, Gabriele Pfister, Emily Fischer, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Colorado State University
Abstract Number: 56 Working Group: Aerosol Exposure
Abstract Exposure to high concentrations of particulate matter (PM) present during acute pollution events is associated with adverse health effects. While many anthropogenic pollution sources are regulated in the United States, emissions from wildfires are difficult to characterize and control. With wildfire frequency and intensity in the western U.S. projected to increase [1-2], it is important to more precisely determine the effect that wildfire emissions have on human health, and whether improved forecasts of these air pollution events can mitigate the health risks associated with wildfires.
One of the challenges associated with determining health risks associated with wildfire emissions is that the low spatial resolution of surface monitors means that surface measurements may not be representative of a population’s exposure, due to steep concentration gradients. To obtain better estimates of ambient exposure levels for health studies, a chemical transport model (CTM) can be used to simulate the evolution of a wildfire plume as it travels over populated regions downwind. In addition, we intend to use this modelling framework to develop an improved forecasting framework that can be used by decision makers to estimate and potentially mitigate future health impacts.
We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate the dispersion and chemistry of wildfire plumes from several historic fires in the western United States. We use a coarse grid of 12x12km for the large domain with nested regions close to the wildfire of 4x4km. We will show results from model simulations and comparisons with surface measurements and remote sensing observations from MODIS and GASP satellite products. Using these high resolution data, we can more easily estimate population exposure levels to better characterize the effects wildfire emissions have on human health.
[1] Westerling, A.L.; Hidalgo, H. G.; Cayan, D.R.; Swetnam, T.W.; “Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity”, Science 313, 18 August 2006.
[2] Flannigan, M. D.; Logan, K. A.; Amiro, B. D.; Skinner, W. R.; Stocks, B.J.; “Future Area Burned in Canada”, Climate Change 72, September 2005.